Recovery and the China Syndrome

COATINGS COMET

December 2009 / January 2010

Volume 18, No. 1

Outlook

Page 1-2

Excerpts from… “Recovery and the China Syndrome”

By Dr. Glenda Thisdell, COATINGS COMET Editor

Perhaps it was seasonal good cheer. Or, possibly, it was relief at having made it to the end of the most trying – some would say traumatizing – economic year in living memory for most working people. Maybe it was simply down to some positive indicators of jobs, orders and bankruptcies.

….In the US, the Federal Reserve is going to face the same dilemma, and mixed signals on jobs and house sales make for difficult forecasting.

But some useful points are raised by Cincinnati-based consultant Daniel Murad, head of ChemQuest. Murad reckons that housing-related sales of decorative paints have bottomed out and are rising slightly, while commercial sector sales may not bottom out until the second quarter this year. He also sees some improvement in consumer confidence, which should lead to rising sales of higher-priced items like cars.

For 2010, Murad is forecasting US decorative coating sales as flat or growing by only one or one and a half percent, with no acceleration of recovery until 2011: “We’re looking at a protracted, lengthy recovery. I’m predicting 3% maximum growth over the next five years in North America.”

And he adds: “Most of my clients do not anticipate returning to 2007 levels until 2014 in North America.”

(To read the complete article…and more comments on “Recovery and the China Syndrome” – December 2009 / January 2010 issue... “COATINGS COMET”).